Running with a Spoonful in Life's Gallery

Saturday, June 12, 2010

Steve Farber - The Radical Edge


Was given this book by a friend. It was a fast read but invigorating. Through a short story, Steve provides some advice on how to live life more fully. My sense of what he feels is "wrong" with the way people are living their lives is that they are (i) going through each day like a drone and not being aware + subscribing to fixed mindsets as an easy way to evaluate the people or environment around them , and (ii) having conservative goals that ultimately do not go beyond themselves and/or are not revolutionary.

His advice is two-fold.
First, to make people "wake up" to their surroundings and people around them, Steve prescribes the "Wake-Up Pad" or WUP, on which one should jot down observations gleaned from scanning/ eavesdropping on one's environment and people. The key is to pass no judgement but put things down the way as they are. Thereafter, he recommends that we ponder through how these observations relate to our lives and our endeavours. He even recommends forming a small group to discuss and exchange ideas as a way to multiple the WUP-effect. I think all these are great ideas. Very often I pass judgement quickly on the things I see (it helps save a lot of time) and chuck what can be potentially new insights or ideas into the bins of "seen-there, done-that" or "not worth my time to think more about". The limits to my lens will only limit my growth as an individual. Since I already carry a notebook everywhere I go now anyway, I shall endeavour to write down observations about people and things as much as I can.

Second, Steve dares us to think about how we can change the world, and to believe, just for one lifetime, that what we do everyday will have that impact. I think this is important in two ways. One's success is essentially limited by one's imagination, and too often, we have been overly modest in this aspect. We don't dream big enough. Second, we tend to see ourselves as isolated creatures, but we should expand our horizons and think of what we can bring to the larger world. I will begin rethinking my goals to include the perspective of how it can impact the larger world henceforth :)

George Soros - The Credit crisis of 2008 and what it means

Had always been rather amazed by George Soros, as the man who broke the back of England. Having started my hand at doing a little investment myself, I must say that I am very keen to learn from the "gurus" as much as I can. And of course, investing in the midst of this financial turmoil does mean that I'm facing off with a Mr Market that is not in one of his very good moods, and any guidance that I can find to add to my analysis will be useful.

The central theme to Soros's book is that of reflexivity - which is roughly similar to Heisenberg's Uncertainty Principle in a way. We often view our role vis-a-vis the financial system as if we are independent observers, and our very act of observation and participation has no impact whatsoever. In such a world, prices will tend towards the fundamental value of assets, which our participation will not have an effect on. However, as the credit crisis (as well as all the other bubbles that blew up in our faces so far) has clearly showed that people's expectations and behaviours do impact on the fundmental value of assets, which in turn affect prices and consequently people's expectations and behaviours. Based on this feedback loop, the corresponding behaviour of the stock market often lapses into self-reinforcing cycles that makes Mr Market a clear bipolar case. It is no longer useful to apply traditional economics to explain or predict the market.

Unfortunately, while Soros's book serves as a good cautionary signal to those of us who are gullible enough to rely solely on economics to invest, the book did not offer clear ways out of this conundrum. Like the unsatisfying Uncertainty Principle, it leaves us with more uncertainty and doubt than answers.